{676} revision 0 modified: 02-17-2009 17:51 gmt

PMID-18578851 Overconfidence in an objective anticipatory motor task.

  • Participants were asked to press a key in synchrony with a predictable visual event and were rewarded if they succeeded and sometimes penalized if they were too quick or too slow.
  • If they had used their own motor uncertainty in anticipating the timing of the visual stimulus, they would have maximized their gain.
  • However, they instead displayed an overconfidence in the sense that they underestimated the magnitude of their uncertainty and the cost of their error.
  • Therefore, overconfidence is not limited to subjective ratings in cognitive tasks, but rather appears to be a general characteristic of human decision making. interesting! but is overconfidence really so bad?