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ref: Mamassian-2008.06 tags: overconfidence human motor learning date: 02-17-2009 17:51 gmt revision:0 [head]

PMID-18578851 Overconfidence in an objective anticipatory motor task.

  • Participants were asked to press a key in synchrony with a predictable visual event and were rewarded if they succeeded and sometimes penalized if they were too quick or too slow.
  • If they had used their own motor uncertainty in anticipating the timing of the visual stimulus, they would have maximized their gain.
  • However, they instead displayed an overconfidence in the sense that they underestimated the magnitude of their uncertainty and the cost of their error.
  • Therefore, overconfidence is not limited to subjective ratings in cognitive tasks, but rather appears to be a general characteristic of human decision making. interesting! but is overconfidence really so bad?